Beatrice, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

721
FXUS63 KOAX 022341
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
541 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer conditions are leading to ice breakup on parts of the
  Platte and Elkhorn Rivers. Ice jam development remains
  possible (less than 30% chance) with warmer temperatures
  sticking around through Monday. If an ice jam develops, the
  river could quickly rise and flood low lying areas.

- Expect a return to cooler, seasonal temperatures beyond
  Monday, with highs mostly in the 30s to lower 40s.

- Small chances (15-30%) for light snow and drizzle/freezing
  drizzle Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The highest
  potential for ice accumulation and impactful winter weather
  will be in far southeast NE into southwest IA Wednesday
  morning.

- Chances for drizzle return for Saturday (15-30% chance) with
  slightly warmer temperatures forecast for the second go
  around.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features the continued zonal
mid/upper flow, with a shortwave ejecting into the Central and
Norther Plains. Dragged along with the aforementioned shortwave, a
cold front currently bisects the forecast area and will settle down
into a stationary front. Before high clouds overspread the area
today, a good amount of warming was able to occur, with highs in the
50s to just over 60 are being reached this afternoon in the somewhat
diffuse frontal zone while much cooler temperatures  in the 30s are
in place in southern South Dakota and north-central Nebraska.
Tonight, models are hinting at the possibility of additional
fog development in southwest Iowa that could leak into far
eastern Nebraska where weaker nocturnal winds are forecast
before stronger winds tomorrow move in. One thing that is going
to work against it`s development will be stronger winds aloft,
that could promote just enough mixing to keep more efficient
cooling from occurring. Lows are forecast in the 30s to upper
20s on either side of the stalled front.

Highs tomorrow will be dictated by where the stationary front
wanders over the course of the day, with highs in the upper 50s just
across the border in Kansas while to the north in South Dakota,
highs are expected to be 30 degrees or less -- leaving a 20 degree
spread from north to south across the forecast area. Winds during
the afternoon hours will be gusting out of the north-northwest and
will certainly add a bite to the air, no matter where the highs end
up.

Tuesday and Beyond:

Tuesday will see the stationary front from the early portion of the
forecast slide far enough south to return seasonable highs in the
30s and upper 20s to the area. Another dry day is expected, with
winds shifting northeasterly while staying largely less than 20 mph.

The next area of focus for the forecast arrives Wednesday in the
form of a shortwave ejecting the High Plains, accompanied by a
potent warm air advection regime that should provide lift and
increased moisture transport that will manifest in drizzle/mist
during the morning hours Wednesday continuing into the afternoon
before largely tapering off by 6 PM. No snow is currently forecast,
as the main column moisture only extends to 800 mb (with no part
cold enough for dependable dendrites) according to current forecast
soundings, while sub-freezing surface temperatures during the
morning signal freezing drizzle that changes to regular drizzle once
temperatures warm above freezing. No impressive accumulations are
expected at this time, and the light but steady winds will keep them
from over performing. Nonetheless, expect to take some extra
time commuting to and from work as slick spots make travel
treacherous.

Late for the work week will see continued zonal mid-level flow
aloft, a slight bump in highs about 3 degrees above normal, and dry
weather while the main arm of forcing stays north of the forecast
area. A shortwave is still being depicted by the major models to
eject from the Pacific Coast Saturday, bringing additional chances
for precipitation while Sunday stays dry. As it currently stands, it
looks eerily similar to the Wednesday forecast, where DGZ saturation
stays north of the main warm air advection regime. Fortunately, a
weekend slick spot maker would have the less focused commute times
that weekdays have, and could lead to less accidents if ice does end
up panning out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025

VFR conditions across the area now are likely to persist
overnight with a period of MVFR cigs forecast for much of Monday
at KOFK and northern portions of the area with broken/overcast
deck at FL019 from about 13Z to 23Z Monday.

Otherwise, the main concern will be the low-level wind shear
expected to develop overnight with strong winds forecast to
develop at about 1kft AGL by 05Z. They`ll begin out of the
south and become westerly and then northerly through the night.
Expect a surface wind of 5-10 knots to grow to about 35-40 knots
by FL010. As the sun comes up, those stronger winds will mix to
the surface and the wind shear will not be as much of a
concern.

Will watch for the development of fog overnight. Expect that to
remain generally east of the area, but if surface winds are
slower than forecast, that fog could sneak into the KOMA area
around daybreak for an hour or two. Chances seem less than 20%
at this point.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen